Should stock market investors hope for a Chiefs win in Super Bowl LIX?
Every February, millions of Americans tune in to watch the Super Bowl, cheering for their favorite team, enjoying the commercials, and indulging in game-day snacks. But did you know that some investors have long believed that the outcome of the Super Bowl could influence the stock market?
It’s called the Super Bowl Indicator, a quirky financial theory suggesting that the market performs better when certain teams win. As the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles prepare to face off in Super Bowl LIX, let’s explore whether this theory holds any weight—or if it’s just another case of superstition in investing.
The Super Bowl Indicator: Fact or Fiction?
The Super Bowl Indicator was first introduced in 1978 by New York Times sportswriter Leonard Koppett. The theory suggested that:
If a team from the old NFL (now the NFC) wins, the stock market will rise.
If a team from the old AFL (now the AFC) wins, the stock market will decline.
At first, the data seemed to support this claim. Out of the first 11 Super Bowls, the stock market followed this trend 10 times, giving it an impressive 91% accuracy rate. Over time, the indicator appeared to predict the market’s direction about 72% of the time when using the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). However, when applied to the broader S&P 500, the accuracy drops to about 60%—not much better than a coin flip.
Still, that hasn’t stopped people from watching the game with an eye on their portfolios.
Does the Super Bowl Still Predict Market Performance?
In recent years, the Super Bowl Indicator has become far less reliable. Consider the following examples:
2023 & 2024 – The Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) won, yet the stock market rose.
2022 – The Los Angeles Rams (NFC) won, but the DJIA fell more than 8%.
2021 – The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) won, and the DJIA rose over 18%.
2020 – The Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) won, yet the DJIA gained over 7%.
2019 – The New England Patriots (AFC) won, and the DJIA surged over 25%.
Clearly, the market has performed well regardless of which conference wins. Over the past 15 years, the Super Bowl Indicator has been accurate less than 40% of the time, making it more of a novelty than a useful investment strategy.
Super Bowl Winners & Market Performance: Team Breakdown
Some teams have an even stronger historical connection to the market’s performance:
Pittsburgh Steelers (6 wins): The DJIA rose every time.
San Francisco 49ers (5 wins): The DJIA rose in 4 out of 5 years.
Dallas Cowboys (5 wins): The DJIA rose in 4 out of 5 years.
Green Bay Packers (4 wins): The DJIA rose after every victory.
New York Giants (4 wins): The DJIA rose in 3 out of 4 years.
For AFC teams, the trend is not as strong—except for one outlier, Kansas City Chiefs (4 wins): The DJIA rose every time.
Does this mean a Chiefs three-peat in 2025 could signal another market rally? Probably not—but it’s fun to consider.
A Logical Explanation Behind the “Pattern”
The most reasonable explanation is that the stock market tends to rise over time. In fact, 42 of the past 58 years have seen market gains, regardless of who won the Super Bowl.
Additionally, the market is influenced by far more significant factors, including:
Interest rates and Federal Reserve policies
Corporate earnings and economic growth
Inflation and global market trends
Geopolitical events and investor sentiment
A football game—no matter how thrilling—has no real impact on the stock market’s direction.
So, Should Investors Adjust Their Portfolios Based on Super Bowl LIX?
The short answer? Absolutely not.
While historical trends can be fun to analyze, investment decisions should be based on market fundamentals, diversification, and long-term financial goals—not which team lifts the Lombardi Trophy.
Instead of adjusting your investments based on the Super Bowl outcome, consider these real strategies for a successful portfolio:
Diversify across asset classes and industries.
Focus on long-term financial goals, not short-term market movements.
Stay disciplined and avoid making emotional investment decisions.
Consult with a financial advisor to ensure your portfolio aligns with your objectives.
At Dominion Wealth Management, we help our clients make informed, data-driven investment decisions—free from superstitions. Whether you’re planning for retirement, wealth preservation, or long-term growth, our team is here to guide you every step of the way.
Final Thoughts: Enjoy the Game, Invest Wisely
The Super Bowl Indicator may be an entertaining financial footnote, but it holds no weight in serious investment planning. So, as Super Bowl LIX approaches, cheer for your favorite team, enjoy the commercials, and focus on what really drives the market—smart, strategic financial decisions.
Want to build a portfolio that thrives in any market condition? Contact Dominion Wealth Management today! Our offices in Wilmington and Whiteville, North Carolina, are ready to assist you with personalized financial strategies that stand the test of time.
Schedule a consultation today! Contact our offices to take the next step towards financial success.
Source: Copyright © 2025 FMeX. All rights reserved. Distributed by Financial Media Exchange.
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